Robust Optimization for Strategic Energy Planning
Volume 27, Issue 3 (2016), pp. 625–648
Pub. online: 1 January 2016
Type: Research Article
Received
1 November 2014
1 November 2014
Accepted
1 November 2015
1 November 2015
Published
1 January 2016
1 January 2016
Abstract
Long-term planning for energy systems is often based on deterministic economic optimization and forecasts of fuel prices. When fuel price evolution is underestimated, the consequence is a low penetration of renewables and more efficient technologies in favour of fossil alternatives. This work aims at overcoming this issue by assessing the impact of uncertainty on energy planning decisions.
A characterization of uncertainty in energy systems decision-making is performed. Robust optimization is then applied to a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problem, representing the typical trade-offs in energy planning. It is shown that in the uncertain domain investing in more efficient and cleaner technologies can be economically optimal.