Informatica

Multi-criteria group decision-making has gained considerable attention due to its ability to aggregate diverse expert opinions and establish a preference order among alternatives. While probabilistic hesitant fuzzy (PHF) sets offer increased flexibility and generality for representing criteria values compared to traditional fuzzy and hesitant fuzzy set theories, existing aggregation techniques often fail to enhance consensus among biased expert judgments. Motivated by the need for more effective consensus-based decision-making, this paper proposes a new framework that integrates PHF set theory with Aczel-Alsina weighted averaging and geometric aggregation operators. These operators, known for their flexibility and the inclusion of an adjustable parameter, are particularly well-suited for addressing real-world decision-making challenges. The framework employs a cross-entropy based model to determine criteria weights and multi-objective optimization by ratio analysis plus the full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) method to establish priority orders of alternatives. The proposed framework is demonstrated through a case study on manufacturing outsourcing vendor selection. The results show that Bertrandt is the most suitable vendor, with a score of 0.2390, and resources consumption is identified as the most critical criterion, with a weight of 0.20. To validate the robustness of the proposed framework, sensitivity and comparison analyses have also been conducted.