Informatica

This paper firstly distinguishes between risk and Risk Factor (RF), as fundamental concepts in risk management. The need for the current study lies in the fact that although there are various risk analysis methods, but there is no well-defined frameworks for RF analysis. Manifestly, most of the researches on RF have concentrated on identifying them, expressing relationships among them, and descriptive discussion on their root causes, rather than numerically analysing them. Additionally, most of the risk-related methods (e.g. the classical Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)) are very sensitive to nuanced changes on inputs. Thus, the paper is to design a robust RF analysis method. The paper proposes a new method called Risk Influential Factor Analysis (RIFA) for evaluation of RFs. Additionally, for getting reliable results, weighting RFs is done by a novel idea named Weight Estimation by Steady Trend (WEST). The WEST is established on the basis of a well-known branch of Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM), called surrogate weighting. Therewith, in analysis section, the paper shows that (I) employing the suggested hybrid RIFA-WEST methodology leads to robust results, (II) compared to the classical FMEA, the RIFA has not many drawbacks to it, and (III) the WEST is comparable with many of the existing surrogate weighting methods. The proposed methodology is applied in a case study from one of the upstream oil engineering disciplines, i.e. Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (CEOR).