Informatica

This paper presents model-based forecasting of the Lithuanian education system in the period of 2001–2010. In order to obtain satisfactory forecasting results, development of models used for these aims should be grounded on some interactive data mining. The process of the development is usually accompanied by the formulation of some assumptions to background methods or models. The accessibility and reliability of data sources should be verified. Special data mining of data sources may verify the assumptions. Interactive data mining of the data, stored in the system of the Lithuanian teachers' database, and that of other sources representing the state of the education system and demographic changes in Lithuania was used. The models cover the estimation of data quality in the databases, analysis of the flow of teachers and pupils, clustering of schools, the model of dynamics of the pedagogical staff and pupils, and the quality analysis of teachers. The main results of forecasting and integrated analysis of the Lithuanian teachers' database with other data reflecting the state of the education system and demographic changes in Lithuania are presented.

The paper deals with the analysis of Research and Technology Development (RTD) in the Central European countries and the relation of RTD with economic and social parameters of countries in this region. A methodology has been developed for quantitative and qualitative ranking and estimates of relationship among multidimensional objects on the base of such analysis. The knowledge has been discovered in four databases: two databases of European Commission (EC) containing data on the RTD activities, databases of USA CIA and The World bank containing economic and social data. Data mining has been performed by means of visual cluster analysis (using the non-linear Sammon's mapping and Kohonen's artificial neural network – the self-organising map), regression analysis and non-linear ranking (using graphs of domination). The results on clustering of the Central European countries and on the relations among RTD parameters with economic and social parameters are obtained. In addition, the data served for testing various features of realisation of the self-organising map. The integration of non-classical methods (the self-organising map and graphs of domination) with classical ones (regress analysis and Sammon' mapping) increases the capacity of visual analysis and allows making more complete conclusions.

The paper deals with a simple model of the competition of two queuing systems, providing the same service. Each system may vary its service price and its service rate. The customers choose the system with less total service price, that depends on the waiting time and on the service price. The possibility for the existence of equilibrium is investigated. Simple cases are investigated analytically. It is shown that the Nash equilibrium exists in special cases only. A modification of the Stakelberg equilibrium is proposed as a model of competition with a prognosis. This prognosis helps form more stable prices and more stable strategies of competitors. The case of social economics is investigated, too. The dynamics of the competition of more realistic stochastic queuing systems is investigated by Monte Carlo simulation. The simulative analysis is realized by means of a rule-based simulation system.

The model of the HIV/AIDS infection spread is proposed and investigated. The paper deals with some specific features of the disease spread at the initial stage, i.e., when the infection extent is small enough. We propose a model characterizing any risk group by three differential equations. These equations describe the dynamics of active susceptible, active infected, and passive infected individuals. The evaluation of parameters from demographical and medical data is discussed. The package for the investigation of infection is presented, and possibilities to control the infection are shown. Two general directions of control may be distinguished: the HIV/AIDS blood tests and the publicity and availability of protective means. The investigations showed under what conditions the HIV/AIDS infection may be stopped.

The paper deals with the minimization algorithms which enable us to economize the computing time during the coordinated calculation of the values of an objective function on the nodes of a rectangular lattice by storing and using quantities that are common for several nodes. The algorithm of a uniform search with clustering, the variable metric algorithm and the polytope algorithm are modified.